Ocena wzrostu PKB w Polsce w latach 1996–-2005 i w dalszej perspektywie przy zastosowaniu metod dyskontowych
J. Kotyński
ABSTRAKT: The paper explains how some discounting cash flows (DCF) methods can beadapted to analyses of macroeconomic trends, related e.g. to long-termchanges in GDP. Average annual growth rate in GDP in Poland in 1996-2005has been evaluated by use of the method analogous to that used for calculationof the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) in microeconomic analyses. Contrarily tothe generally used geometricmean, the proposed average growth rate (equivalent to that proposed earlier by I. Timofiejuk) takes into account the accumulated volume of the GDP generated over the whole analysed period, and notmerely the ratio of the GDP volume in the last year to that of the base one. This prevents the bias favouring a potential choice of the delayed growth trajectory, yielding identical growth index for the last year of the period as someother (uniform or accelerated) growth patterns, but characterised by a lowervolume of the GDP accrued over that period.
Calculation of current value of GDP flows for past or future multi-year periodshas a sound economic meaning and can be a valuable tool of macroeconomical analyses and studies of growth policy options, adding new arguments for possible growth now trajectories.
It has been found out that the internal growth rate of GDP in Polandamounted to 4.8% annually in 1996-2003, as compared to 4.0% geometric average rate for that period. The corresponding IRR rate for the years 1996-2005 has been estimated at 4.5-4.6%, against 4.2%-4.3% geometric average.Final section deals with comparative trends in GDP in Poland and other member states of the EU. Strong economic upturn in Poland in 2003-2004 has beena surprise tomany experts. The growth has been faster than forecast by the European Commission and OECD. It is supposed to continue after the accession.
Pełny tekst (PDF)
Numer wydania: 14
W numerze:
Saving from Permanent and Transitory Income. The Case of Polish Households
Z. Liberda, B. Górecki, M. Pęczkowski
ABSTRAKT |
PDF
The paper analyses the impact of income uncertainty on household saving. Using a panel of Polish households for 1997-2000 we decompose uncertainty of household income into a variance of shocks to permanent income and a variance of shocks to transitory income. Then we regress households' savings on the estimated measures of income uncertainty controlling for demographic and social variables. Our empirical results indicate that the average variances of permanent and transitory income of Polish households do not differ much. Both measures of income uncertainty are statistically significant in predicting saving. The permanent income uncertainty affects savings more than the uncertainty of transitory income. A significant part of households' savings in Poland may be of precautionary, buffer-stock character.
This paper is the CHER (Consortium of the Household Panels for European Socio-economic Research) Working Paper, 2003, No. 15, presented at the 28th General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in Cork, Ireland in 2004 and at the CHER workshop in Spain, 2002. It is a companion paper to Uncertainty of Households' Income in the European Union Countries and Poland., co-authored by B. Liberda, B. Górecki, and M. Pęczkowski, that was published in EMERGO, 4(38)/2003 and appeared also as CHER Working Paper, 2003, No. 13, within the programImproving the Human Research Potential and the Socio-Economic Knowledge Base, supported by the European Commission.
In preparing both papers we benefited from the grant by the Polish NationalCommittee for Scientific Research (KBN) for years 2001.2003, No. 5.1.102C 051
Ocena wzrostu PKB w Polsce w latach 1996–-2005 i w dalszej perspektywie przy zastosowaniu metod dyskontowych
J. Kotyński
ABSTRAKT |
PDF
The paper explains how some discounting cash flows (DCF) methods can beadapted to analyses of macroeconomic trends, related e.g. to long-termchanges in GDP. Average annual growth rate in GDP in Poland in 1996-2005has been evaluated by use of the method analogous to that used for calculationof the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) in microeconomic analyses. Contrarily tothe generally used geometricmean, the proposed average growth rate (equivalent to that proposed earlier by I. Timofiejuk) takes into account the accumulated volume of the GDP generated over the whole analysed period, and notmerely the ratio of the GDP volume in the last year to that of the base one. This prevents the bias favouring a potential choice of the
delayed growth trajectory, yielding identical growth index for the last year of the period as someother (uniform or accelerated) growth patterns, but characterised by a lowervolume of the GDP accrued over that period.
Calculation of current value of GDP flows for past or future multi-year periodshas a sound economic meaning and can be a valuable tool of macroeconomical analyses and studies of growth policy options, adding new arguments for possible growth now trajectories.
It has been found out that the internal growth rate of GDP in Polandamounted to 4.8% annually in 1996-2003, as compared to 4.0% geometric average rate for that period. The corresponding IRR rate for the years 1996-2005 has been estimated at 4.5-4.6%, against 4.2%-4.3% geometric average.Final section deals with comparative trends in GDP in Poland and other member states of the EU. Strong economic upturn in Poland in 2003-2004 has beena surprise tomany experts. The growth has been faster than forecast by the European Commission and OECD. It is supposed to continue after the accession.
Polityka fiskalna RP w świetle paktu stabilności i wzrostu gospodarczego (SGP)
B. Samojlik
ABSTRAKT |
PDF
In the paper, the place and the importance of the fiscal criteria and the excessive deficit procedures (EDP) within the set of theMaastricht convergence criteria, as well as their basic importance for the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP)were presented. Also, the evolution of the attitude of the EU zone countries towards these criteria before the birth of the euro zone and after its birth in 1999was presented. The extent was examined to which the Maastricht Treaty criteria and the SGP provisions were applied in the period of 1999-2003 by the EU organs when assessing the fiscal policy of individual countries under the excessive deficit procedure. Despite the fact that the admissible ceiling of the deficit-to-GDP ratio had repeatedly been considerably overstepped by themajority of the euro zone countries, no sanctions or penalties were ever applied. The EU organs confined themselves only to the so-called early warning to the countries that chronically stayed in the zone of excessive deficit. The primary reason for the EU organs' abstention from applying the Treaty criteriaand the SGP provisions was the fact that the Maastricht Treaty had adopted thenominal deficit as the basis for the assessment whether and to what extent thegiven country had infringed the fiscal discipline. Whereas, in a situationwhere the GDP is growing more slowly than the potential rate of growth, it is necessary, in order to avoid adverse consequences of a restrictive fiscal policy, to be guided by the structural rather than nominal deficit. Despite the infringement of the principle of avoiding an excessive deficit by the biggest eurozone countries and the lack, even in cases of drastic infringement of the fiscaldiscipline, of applying the sanctions and penalties foreseen by the ExcessiveDeficit Procedure, both the EDP and the Stability and Growth Pact have fulfilled their function of non-discretionary (i.e. based on fixed rules) tools ofpublic finance improvement both in the euro zone and throughout the EU, as the ED procedure applies to all the EU member countries. It was against thisbackground that the Polish programme of fiscal convergence for 1995-1997, being a part of the general convergence programme filed in connection with thecountry's EU accession, was analyzed. The analysis has shown that, among thetasks under the above convergence programme, there are some that can proveto be the very difficult to implement: firstly, the adjustment of the Polish regulations (inclusive of the constitutional provisions) governing the position of thecentral bank to the requirements of the Maastricht Treaty, the ECB constitution and the statutes of the European System of Central Banks; secondly, theneed to accept after 2007, i.e. at the time when Poland's membership of theeuro zone can become practical, that the Open Pension Funds (OPFs) do notmake a part of the public sector and, consequently, the resources gathered bythem are not public funds and, thereby, the liabilities of the Social InsuranceFund to the OPFs are public liabilities that augment the ratio of the public sector deficit and the public debt to the GDP.
Planowanie –- zmierzch czy renesans (w związku z procesami integracyjnymi)
A. Łukaszewicz
ABSTRAKT |
PDF
Neither twilight nor renaissance: the author argues, that the failure of the central-directive command planning of the Soviet type cannot overshadow thebenefits or sometimes even necessity of development planning. Survival and/or continuity of planning experience, while getting rid of counterpositionplanning versus market, is becoming particularly valid vis a vis contemporary challenges which national and international comunities are facing nowadays. The author is referring to such questions as the distant time-horizons ina lot of activities, both micro -and macroeconomic, as well as those havingglobal dimensions; to the badly needed planning in the R&D sphere; to the corporate planning; to the activities in the natural environment conservation andpreservation etc. In many cases the analysis is illustrated by the problems andpractises of the European Union.
Unijna polityka sąsiedztwa zewnętrznego
M. Dobroczyński
ABSTRAKT |
PDF
The process of unification of the twenty-five EU countries presents many internal difficulties that stem, in the first place, from large spans between thelevels of economic advancement of the individual member countries, but alsofrom certain cultural and civilization differences, as well as from some relicsof historical antagonisms.
However, the internal integration is not tantamount to a policy of isolation ofthe integrated group from closer contacts with its external surroundings. TheEuropean Union is more and more decisively tending towards constructiverapprochement with its eastern and southern (Mediterranean) neighbours, inthe belief that an extensive economic and cultural cooperation will promotepolitical stabilization and general development and help the Union's neighbours with attaining higher stages of advancement. At the same time, the Union itself will gain greater security and additional economic advantage.Apart from its relations with neighbours, the Union continues to attach importance to tightening the relations with a number of other countries that, thoughspatially more remote, are in many respects closely connected with the Union.This in particular regards the 70 associated African, Caribbean, Pacific andMercosur Group countries.
Instytucje rynku pracy w Hiszpanii
W. Sztyber
ABSTRAKT |
PDF
The paper is made up of two sections. In the first one, the legal and institutional bases of the labour market, the labour relations and the employmentpolicy are presented. In the second one, the labourmarket's functioning in theform of negotiations and collective labour contracts is described.In the first section, in presenting the most important legal bases of the labourmarket, the labour relations and the employment policy, the exceptional roleof the constitution is emphasized. The constitution not only declares the rightto work and to a pay sufficient to satisfy one's own and his family's needs, butalso obligates the public authorities to create conditions conducive to economic and social progress and possibly equitable distribution of regional andpersonal incomes within the framework of the economic stabilization policy.The authorities have to conduct a policy aimed at full employment. The constitution attaches great importance to the development of social partnershipboth on the central and regional level and, on the microeconomic level, in therelations between employers and employees. The most important forms ofsuch cooperative relations between the employers and the employees are collective negotiations and the resulting collective contracts that are endowedwith binding power.
In the second section of the paper, different kinds of collective negotiationsand contracts, their development, their main objectives and their life periodsare discussed in detail. Themost important areas of negotiation are: the remuneration for work, the working time and the way of its distribution, as well asthe employment contract system. The point of reference for pay agreements inthe majority of collective contracts is the inflation forecasted by the government, supplemented with a guarantee clause allowing for possible underestimation of the inflation.More rarely, the last year's real inflation is adoptedas pay increase basis. In the pay rise negotiations, beside the inflation, the increase in productivity is taken into account, too.
In Spain, among the untypical employment contracts, those most frequent areterm contracts. They make one third of all the employment contracts and theirshare is three times as high as in the EU15 countries on average. Whereas theemployment contracts for part-time work are in Spain much less developedthan in the EU15 countries on average. Within the framework of their employment policy, the public authorities tend, among other things, to limit the termemployment in favour of no-term employment and to a broader use ofpart-time employment contracts. The part-time employment facilitates reconciliation of occupation with family duties and, thereby, favours the increase inoccupational activity and employment that, in Spain, stay below the averagelevel for the EU15 countries.
In addition, when observing the Spanish labour market, a trend towards shortening the duration of full-time work and lengthening the duration of thepart-time work can be noted.
Redystrybucyjny efekt świadczeń zdrowotnych
E. Aksman
ABSTRAKT |
PDF
This article examines the influence of health services on household currentincome distribution.Household Budget Survey in 1995 and The Use ofMedicalServices in 1995/1996 conducted by Central Statistical Office are the mainsource of data. In the research sample consisting of 27,836 units health services lead to lower income inequality. Nevertheless their redistributive effectis very weak. It is mainly a consequence of their low average rate with respectto original income and low regressivity as well. What is more, the effect is reduced by the reranking effect. Additionally, calculation of Relative BenefitShare Progressivity and Relative Income Share Progressivity confirms directly that health services are de facto regressive with respect to original income, i.e. they decrease income inequality.
Myśl ekonomiczna późnych scholastyków hiszpańskich
K. Kostro
ABSTRAKT |
PDF
The paper analyzes the economic thought of the late Spanish scholastics andshows that they have made a meaningful contribution to the development ofeconomics. The objective of the paper is to prove that these authors deservethe name of originators of the scientific economic knowledge. The literary output of the 16th century?s Spanish thinkers includes, apart from theological andjuridical texts, also reflections on economic problems that, by their substanceand nature, have been ahead of many economic conceptions. The reflectionsdeveloped by the Spanish scholastics make the germ of progressive thoughtsand ideas to-day considered as free-market and liberal. Their reflections alsopresent sometimes very radical appraisal of certain phenomena and suggesta just, from the point of view of moral philosophy, solution to the difficultiesthat appear in the economic life.
The paper starts with considerations that describe this group and bring nearertheir times. The main part of the paper is a presentation of the most importanteconomic ideas of the representatives of the Spanish scholastic economics.Then, the perception and appraisal of their output in the economic literatureare presented. The paper ends with discussion on the links between the scholastic economics and the Austrian school of economics.
Wpływ zagranicznych inwestycji bezpośrednich na zdolność konkurencyjną gospodarki Węgier w procesie integracji z rynkiem Unii Europejskiej
B. Kostro
ABSTRAKT |
PDF
In the paper, the results of the research into the competitiveness of Hungary'seconomy in 1995-2002 were presented. The competitiveness of the economywas determined on the level of the manufacturing sector with special regard tothe impact of foreign direct investment on the automotive industry and theelectrical and optical appliance industry. The above industries that in the 1990s had enjoyed priority governmental support in the form of investment incentives, showed the strongest penetration by the foreign capital. The foreigndirect investment (FDI) companies established in these industries made thequickest adaptive structural transformations in the sphere of production andmarketing, increased the export volume and decidedly improved the quality oftheir product offer, thus integrating Hungary into the European productionand sales chain. This has been not without influence on the profitability of theFDI companies in the above industries. Thus, the adaptability of the Hungarian economy and its sales and profit making capability in the industries underreview have proved, thanks to the foreign direct investment companies, high.However, at the same time the economy's capability of attracting foreign investment has been considerably weakening, as the volume of foreign investment in the manufacturing sector has been approaching the limit of this sector's absorption capability.
