Represja versus rynek wolny i kontrolowany. Badanie (słabej) efektywnooeci polskiego rynku walutowego (dolar/złoty) w latach 1983–1989 oraz 1991–2006
M. Gruszczyński
ABSTRACT: In 1982–2006 the Polish foreign currency market underwent a total revolution. A liberalization of the capital account took place. Poland became a member of the IMF, OECD and European Union. The exchange rate control system underwent an evolution as well: from an unreal, through rigid to a marketforces controlled system. A similar change is also visible among the market participants— now, Poland makes part of the global financial system sharing all its advantages and threats. In the paper, the author tried to verify the hypothesis about the improvement in the effectiveness of the Polish foreign exchange market (in its weak version).
. The presented research results suggest that till 1998 (or 2000) the Polish market was really getting more and more effective. However, since the beginning of the 21st century the hypothesis of the market’s effectiveness has been rather difficult to accept (although, its rejection may require some further, more advanced research). The main cause of the exchange rate’s ineffectiveness may consist in the advantageous balance of Poland’s EU accession and integration and, prior to 2004, in the declining interest rates together with optimistic expectations of the market participants as to the success of Poland’s aspiration after the EU membership. On the other hand, in 2007 the transition period will expire during which Poland has been permitted to reckon the Open Pension Funds in the public finance sector. Slowly, the negative aspects of the pending problems (miners’ pensions, compensations for longterm contracts in the electric power sector, and maybe also for the liquidation of special economic zones, guarantees and lack of reforms in the Polish State Railways, indemnity for the Eureco consortium) hitherto delayed will begin to be felt. The adverse influence of the integration on the state budget can increase the deficit over the desirable 3% or induce the authorities to further indebtedness. As a result, the hitherto observed onesided pressure on the zloty exchange rate can vanish. It is probable then that an improvement in the market effectiveness will take place with the appearance of factors that usually contribute to weakening of the exchange rate but till now have not been sufficiently strong.
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Issue number: 19
In this issue:
Poland and other European Union new member countries as partners in international competitiveness
J. Misala
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The last, so-called eastern enlargement of the European Union is still controversial issue also from the purely economic point of view. However, taking into account respective theory on the long-run it should strengthen the overall international competitiveness of the enlarged Union and there are even first insights supporting such an attitude.
Due to many gravitational forces the eight Eastern and Central European new member countries (NMES-8) of the enlarged European Union are on the way of deepening economic integration with their traditional partners upgrading among others trade, capital as well as technology dependence and interdependence. The role of intra-industry complementarity is clearly increasing with all the positive consequences. However, the differentiated intensity of respective restructuring processes between the NMES-8 countries can be observed when taking into account appropriate statistical data and results of various analyses concerning 1999–2005 period.
Within the enlarged European Union, Poland—the leader in the early years of systemic transformation—has so far made only relatively limited use of the possibilities for deepening and widening division of labour with other countries of the enlarged European Union. This is due to many reasons, while the relatively slow restructuring in comparison with other new EU member countries as well as some lags with regard to institutional changes seem to be of greatest importance. Therefore there is to learn a lot from other NMES countriesi' experiences.
Efekt eksportowy restrykcyjnej polityki pieniężnej
W. Koziński
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The paper describes the phenomenon provoked by fast decline in the price rise pace in Poland over the years 2001–2002. A rapid disinflation acts similarly to devaluation of the domestic currency, which means improvement in the export conditions and, as a result, should lead to acceleration of the exports. In fact, as shown by the quoted statistical data, from 2003 the merchandise export markedly accelerated. Thus, on the one hand, the rigid monetary policy of the 1998–2004 period brought a visible decline in the rate of the GDP growth, but on the other hand, under the economic circumstances of that time, created conditions for promotion of exports.
Polityka pieniężna państw nadbałtyckich - nowych członków Unii Europejskiej
W. Przybylska-Kapuścińska
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On 1 May 2004, new East and Central European states that had made a major breakthrough in their social and economic system found themselves within the European Union area. A fundamental decision of capital importance for their future had been the transformation of centrally planned economies into market economies. This required an extreme determination, consistence and sacrifices, and entailed different social and economic costs. The economies in transformation carried out many indispensable reforms and among them changes in the functioning of the banking sector, development of an independent central bank and choice of a defined monetary policy strategy.
The fundamental problem in the monetary policy of the East and Central European countries was the necessity to get under control the high inflation and build up the credibility of their national currencies in the face of both the changing external conditions and the differentiation of the political, economic and social situation in the group of the countries in question. Stabilization of prices on a low level became the main criterion in the adaptation processes of those countries on their road to integration with the European Community structures. This criterion also became the most important determinant of the monetary policy and its strategies adopted by the individual countries running for the EU membership.
The paper focused on presentation of the methods adopted by the group of East European Baltic countries in the conduct of their economic policy. Thus, the monetary policy of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia was presented. These three countries distinguish themselves among the new EU members by their geopolitical situation because all of them have emerged from the disintegration of the Soviet Union and constitute a relatively homogeneous group of economies in transformation. Certain elements of homogeneity can also be observed in the monetary policy adopted by them. In the first part of the paper, the essence of the exchangerate strategy applied in practice by the new Baltic EU member countries was characterized. Then, in consideration of the fact that the most important conditions substantial from the point of view of the monetary policy, and related to the accession of the countries in question to the Eurosystem, were the independence of the central bank and the definition of the main goal of their monetary policy so as to make it compatible with the goal of the European Central Bank, the process of shaping the monetary policy in the individual countries was presented in more detail, in concentrating on the problem of institutional independence of the central bank and on the main goals and instruments of the monetary policy. Also, the course of the inflationary processes over the period of 1997–2005 was monitored.
Ewolucja i perspektywy Unii Europejskiej
A. Łukaszewicz
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The article has been inspired by the Document: Council of the European Union, 10117/ 06, Renewed EU Sustainable Development Strategy (Brussels, 9 June 2006). The problems discussed are following: Historical process of the economic and social integration; Prerequisites of the European integration and political will; Disproportions and challenges — spatial and regional policies — ambitious struggle with historical heritage; UE budget and specific distributional policies—prolonged time horizons; National states vis-2-vis internationalization and globalization — collisions and/or harmony with MNC and TNC; Social Questions; European Monetary System; Some suggestions and recommendations for Poland’s attitudes and policies.
Finanse publiczne w rozwoju ekonomiczno-społecznym Polski jako członka Unii Europejskiej
W. Sztyber
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Poland’s accession to the EU increases the role of the public finance as well in the economic as in the social and ecological spheres; it permits utilization of the European funds: the regional, structural, cohesion and ecological funds, thus accelerating a balanced economic, social and ecological development; makes a substantial improvement in the infrastructure possible, if supported by utilization of own means; by applying the principle of solidarity in the allocation of financial aid, results in a reduction in the economic and social differentiation; reduces the unemployment both directly by cofinancing the active labour-market policy projects and by cofinancing other projects that indirectly promote employment; by giving the self-government bodies access to the Community aid, makes it easier for them to execute projects that improve the local infrastructure; promotes changes in the price system and in the level and structure of budget revenues; by enforcing a certain tax harmonization, brings about more neutral market competition conditions, contributes to Europeanization of the labour relations and conditions as well as to the environment protection by imposing certain ecological standards.
Dochody i wydatki gospodarstw domowych
M. Gorczyca
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An analysis of the statistical spectrum of the incomes and expenses of the Polish households leads to the conclusion that the disposable incomes only slightly surpass the expenses of the households and, for a significant part of the households, are lower. There is a growing economic polarization of the society whose considerable part lives on incomes below the social minimum and even below the minimum of existence. The society, as a whole, only to a small extent enjoys the fruits of the economic growth. There is also a growing marginalization of a large part of the society: its many members are not able to meet the higher-order needs (education, culture, recreation, etc.) as they can not afford them—these spheres have been to a large extent commercialized.
Strategia personalna organizacji a jej postrzeganie i reakcja na nią pracowników
G. Bartkowiak
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The subject of this paper is the personnel strategy and its perceptions by managers and other workers. The basic problem of this paper could be put into questions: how is the personnel strategy (and their different types) perceived by managers and other workers in a crisis situation and is there direct dependence between the perceived strategies and the managers and workers’ behavior? In order to find answer to the questions th efollowing research was planned. In the first stage there were 63 managers trying to describe the types of strategies. In the second stage 123 workers and 32 managers took part in the research. The complete data proved that the realized strategies were perceived independently of the extent of effort taking part in their introduction and the workers didn’t like to share their knowledge. The other results achieved in the research indicated that personnel strategies utilizing restrictions and mental pressing were evaluated positively (by some workers) and negatively by others.
Represja versus rynek wolny i kontrolowany. Badanie (słabej) efektywnooeci polskiego rynku walutowego (dolar/złoty) w latach 1983–1989 oraz 1991–2006
M. Gruszczyński
ABSTRACT |
PDF
In 1982–2006 the Polish foreign currency market underwent a total revolution. A liberalization of the capital account took place. Poland became a member of the IMF, OECD and European Union. The exchange rate control system underwent an evolution as well: from an unreal, through rigid to a marketforces controlled system. A similar change is also visible among the market participants— now, Poland makes part of the global financial system sharing all its advantages and threats. In the paper, the author tried to verify the hypothesis about the improvement in the effectiveness of the Polish foreign exchange market (in its weak version).
. The presented research results suggest that till 1998 (or 2000) the Polish market was really getting more and more effective. However, since the beginning of the 21st century the hypothesis of the market’s effectiveness has been rather difficult to accept (although, its rejection may require some further, more advanced research). The main cause of the exchange rate’s ineffectiveness may consist in the advantageous balance of Poland’s EU accession and integration and, prior to 2004, in the declining interest rates together with optimistic expectations of the market participants as to the success of Poland’s aspiration after the EU membership. On the other hand, in 2007 the transition period will expire during which Poland has been permitted to reckon the Open Pension Funds in the public finance sector. Slowly, the negative aspects of the pending problems (miners’ pensions, compensations for longterm contracts in the electric power sector, and maybe also for the liquidation of special economic zones, guarantees and lack of reforms in the Polish State Railways, indemnity for the Eureco consortium) hitherto delayed will begin to be felt. The adverse influence of the integration on the state budget can increase the deficit over the desirable 3% or induce the authorities to further indebtedness. As a result, the hitherto observed onesided pressure on the zloty exchange rate can vanish. It is probable then that an improvement in the market effectiveness will take place with the appearance of factors that usually contribute to weakening of the exchange rate but till now have not been sufficiently strong.
Lake Water Quality Valuation - Benefit Transfer Approach vs. Empirical Evidence
A. Bartczak, M. Czajkowski, O. Markiewicz, A. Markowska, J. Melichar, M. Scasny, H. Skopkova
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The paper reports research in benefit transfer validity between Norway and two New Member States of EU-Poland and the Czech Republic. Based on the original eutrophication contingent valuation study conducted in Norway in 1994, repeated later in Norway (1997) and Germany (2000), two studies were conducted in Poland and the Czech Republic in 2005 in which we ask residents for willingness-to-pay for a hypothetical improvement of water quality in a lake which is strongly euthrophicated and therefore not usable for all recreational activities. The studies were designed in a way that would match the Norwegian original as closely as possible, with regard to site selection, scenario, payment vehicle and even the questionnaire design. The experience gained and the data collected serves to test for possibilities for future BT from Western European countries to new EU Member States as well as between two new member countries. Naive single benefit transfer yields the largest error rates. Transfers adjusted by purchasing power decrease these errors, however, they still remain very large. The error rates are more reduced by transfer benefit function and particularly after adjustments by income elasticities. Following our best transfer, the lowest error remains as high as 30%. Error rates for transferring benefits from Norwegian 1997-study which is just comparable with the Czech and Polish one from even after purchasing power adjustments remain. The paper summarizes the process of collecting data and results, analyzes main differences between the original and two latter studies as well as between the new studies. Finally, value transfer and function transfer are conducted and followed by validity tests.
Wartość dodatkowego roku przeżycia w Polsce
A. Bartczak, M. Czajkowski, O. Markiewicz, A. Markowska
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The article touches the problem how to valuate such specific goods as human health and life. The study provides the results of the first Polish valuation of life year gained (VOLY) in the context of air pollution on the level of 32,0–70,4 thousand PLN. Presented contingent valuation method survey was conducted within European Commission NEEDS project. Common questionnaire was implemented in 8 European countries: Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, France, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Spain, Denmark. Poland’s research was conducted by Warsaw Ecological Economics Centre in 2004–2006. The monetary indicators can be used in decisive processes in health care and environmental protection sectors. Taking into account first Polish experiences in valuation of life year and trends in development of valuation methods, some directions for future research in this field have been outlined.
